What to Watch in Tuesday's Primaries

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Politico:

What to watch in Tuesday's primaries

By DAVID CATANESE & JAMES HOHMANN & ALEX ISENSTADT & JOSH KRAUSHAAR | 5/18/10 5:04 AM EDT

Just four states go to the polls Tuesday, but together they cast a long shadow.

It’s the biggest single-day primary so far in 2010 and the outcomes in a handful of key races will provide the clearest indication yet of the depth and intensity of the anti-incumbent fever that is shaping the midterm election.

The most closely watched battles will be in Pennsylvania, where Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter is in serious danger of losing the seat he has held for three decades to two-term Rep. Joe Sestak, and Arkansas, where Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln is seeking to fend off Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

Kentucky’s GOP Senate race is expected to provide a measure of grassroots conservative populist strength — not to mention anti-establishment sentiment — with party favorite Secretary of State Trey Grayson playing the unexpected role of underdog in his matchup against with tea party-backed physician Rand Paul.

The western Pennsylvania-based special election for the seat of the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha, meanwhile, will provide a crucial barometer of the popularity of President Barack Obama’s ambitious Democratic agenda.

And that’s not all. The primary day agenda also includes a slate of notable House primaries in Pennsylvania, while in Arkansas, where three of the state’s four congressmen are not seeking reelection, voters will select nominees in three open seat races.

Here are POLITICO’s things to watch on primary day:

PENNSYLVANIA

Philly vs. the burbs

If Sen. Arlen Specter is able to beat back Rep. Joe Sestak’s late surge in the Democratic Senate primary, the city that launched his political career 45 years ago is likely to be the reason. Both camps realize that the longest serving senator in Pennsylvania history will need a robust turnout in his Philadelphia base — potentially as high as 40 percent — to hold off the hard-charging former Navy admiral.

A Quinnipiac University survey released last week showed Specter with a 17- point lead in the city, while the other regions of the state were much tighter. One key question is whether the activist base, which is not accustomed to voting for the party-switching Specter, turns out for a May midterm election primary. For his part, Sestak will be counting on a solid performance in the populous suburbs that surround the city, which include his home base of Delaware County.

Rendell’s muscle

The vaunted turnout operation of Gov. Ed Rendell — which helped resuscitate Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential run — will again be put to the test, this time charged with saving Specter. The senator’s name will appear on the sample ballots that Philadelphia ward leaders hand out and Rep. Bob Brady, chairman of the Philadelphia Democratic City Committee, will be tasked with working to turnout African American voters.

The SEIU is also on the ground to help push Specter across the finish line, committing at least 250 volunteers to the final hours of the campaign. Liberal heavyweight MoveOn.org is aiding Sestak's get-out-the vote effort. While the president passed on the opportunity to make a final stop to rally for Specter, Rendell promised "a significant majority of Democrats are going to know that Obama wants Specter reelected."

"You're going to see a lot of direct mail, a lot of robocalls and a lot of radio advertising," Rendell told POLITICO.